Here you will find a serial of three reports -related to Turkey-Syrian relationship and Turkey-Iran relationship- from a Turkey based think-tank called The Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) at http://www.setav.org . It is the first time I read anything from this think-tank. Judge yourselves.
By Ufuk ULUTAS
SETA Policy Report, No. 2, October 2009
The Israeli-Syrian track has been an important component of the Arab-Israeli peace talks due to its integral role in reaching comprehensive peace in the Middle East. The latest round of indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria was initiated under the sponsorship of Turkey on May 21, 2008, and by the end of 2008 both sides were ready to start the direct talks. However, in protest of Israeli aerial and ground offensive in Gaza in December 2008, Syria halted the indirect talks with Israel. Several factors, including the lack of American endorsement; Olmert’s weak prospect in Israel due to the ongoing corruption investigation; approaching early elections, and the rise of rightist parties in Israel, topped by the Israeli offensive in Gaza, rendered the conciliation efforts futile.
The Syrian side has been consistently clear about their principal demands from their Israeli counterparts: “the line of 4 June 1967.” While security concerns have been shaping Israeli demands from Syria in the peace negotiations. Many in Israel consider the Golan Heights as Israel’s first line of defense against Syria and see retaining of the water sources in the Golan as strategic and existential.
The Iranian threat has been a crucial factor motivating Israel to reconsider the peace talks with Syria; on the other hand, Syrian determination to end their international isolation has made Syria a willing party for the peace talks. While Syria prefers a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace that include Israeli-Palestinian track side by side with the Israeli-Syrian track, Israel wants to deal with the Palestinian question and peace with Syria separately.
Israeli-Syrian peace has the potential to be a turning point in the history of the Middle East, on the condition that it produces a viable solution for the border disputes and security concerns and that both sides comply with implementation of the solution. While facilitating the end of decades-long hostilities between Arab states and Israel, it could also have a positive impact on Iranian-American and Iranian-Israeli relations. Consequently, it could prevent a serious armed conflict between Iran and Israel in the Middle East.
Third parties will have to play a more active role during all stages of the peace process: indirect talks, direct talks, and implementation of the agreement. While such countries as Turkey could bridge the gap between the two countries in earlier stages and lay the foundations of an agreement, the U.S. involvement into the process would be critical in later stages. Having Israel and Syria comply with the terms of the agreement would be as much important as bringing them to the table and having them sign the agreement.
Ufuk Ulutas is the Coordinator of the Middle East Program at SETA Washington D.C. He has taught classes on world history at Ohio State University, and worked as a Graduate Research Associate at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies. He previously held the Samuel M. Melton Fellowship in Jewish Studies, and is the current holder of the George M. & Renée K. Levine Fellowship by the Melton Center for Jewish Studies. He received his B.A. in Political Science and Public Administration from Bilkent University in Ankara, and his M.A. in modern Middle Eastern history from Ohio State University. He is a Ph.D. Candidate at Ohio State University and is finishing his dissertation on the immigration of Turkish Jews to Israel during the inter-war years.
Sami MOUBAYED* Policy Brief, October 2008, No.25
The rise to power of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan marks a new era in positive Turkish-Syrian relations. The new Syrian attitude towards Turkey represents a break from past: Syria considers Turkey a reliable partner for brokering a peace deal between Syria and Israel, and Turkey offers opportunities for political and economic cooperation for improving the welfare and security of two countries. The Syrian administration considers Turkey’s partnership to be a key factor in its attempts to achieve integration into the international community, a solution of the problems with Israel, and the securing of territorial unity in Iraq.
* Sami Moubayed, PhD, is a Syrian historian, political analyst, and university professor based in Damascus. He is editor-in-chief of Syria’s leading English monthly FORWARD, and author of Steel & Silk: Men and Women Who Shaped Syria 1900-2000 (Cune Press, 2005), email@example.com.